Imma Perfetto
Cosmos science journalist
In what appears to be very good news for a hungry planet, agricultural productivity seems set to help meet the needs of a growing global population, which is expected to reach a peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
The analysis of worldwide food production has found that global crop yields have continued to grow at roughly the same rate since the 1960s. The researchers say their findings are contrary to concerns that growth in crop production has stagnated.
The new study is published today in the peer reviewed scientific journal, PLOS ONE.
However the study authors also warn that several challenges must be addressed to ensure that future crop yields meet global food requirements, which they say are expected to grow by a third over the next 3 decades due to population and income growth, and changing consumption patterns.
“Understanding yield growth patterns is crucial for the discussion of food security and sustainable development,” the authors write.
The researchers developed a new standardised approach to measure the production and yield of 144 crops, which cover 98% of agricultural land on Earth. Rather than traditional weight-based measures, their standardised measure converts annual crop production into calorific content.
They say this approach provides “an easy-to-implement, yet standardised and universal framework for analysing and comparing yield growth at any level, from individual crops to commodity groups to global aggregates”.
Their analysis found that global crop yield has grown at a consistent rate of 109 kilocalories per hectare per year from 1961 to 2021. This is equivalent to adding 32.6 kilograms of wheat every year in each hectare of land.
Their findings suggest any previously observed slowdown in specific crops, regions or countries has been offset by accelerated growth in others.
But increasing yield alone won’t guarantee food security for all the world’s people.
Sustainable food production and the affordability of food will continue to be challenges to global food security.
“The first challenge is the increasing frequency and intensity of adverse weather patterns, exacerbated by the ongoing climate change, which is expected to alter the regional composition of commodity production and increase yield volatility,” the authors write.
They say that developing new temperature and precipitation resilient cultivars will be crucial to maintain historical yield growth.
“Another challenge is removing distorting trade policies, which restrict food availability in regions experiencing food deficits,” the authors add.
“Despite agricultural policy reforms undertaken in recent decades, global agricultural trade is still subjected to trade barriers and domestic policies.
“Finally, even if adequate food supplies can be ensured globally, access to food remains a concern, especially in low-income countries where food insecurity is associated with conflict and extreme weather events.”
According to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises, almost 282 million people worldwide experienced acute food insecurity in 2023. The numbers of people facing these conditions have been increasing every year since 2019.
“Achieving equitable access to food across income groups will entail financial assistance, food delivery through aid, as well as investments and policies aimed at increasing productivity but also reducing food waste at the production level,” the authors write.
