Imma Perfetto
Cosmos science journalist
New research from The US and Queensland shows Australia can fully decarbonise its domestic and energy export economies while also protecting its natural capital – avoiding harm to important areas for biodiversity outcomes, safeguarding agricultural activities, and respecting Indigenous land rights.
It found that a land and sea area of 110,000km2 is needed to site all renewable energy infrastructure by 2060 to reach net-zero in Australia – an area roughly 1.7 times the size of Tasmania.
The modelling suggests that while it is possible achieve this goal and preserve lands for biodiversity and agriculture, the effort will require significant collaboration between energy developers, state and local governments, landowners, and interest groups to identify the most suitable areas.
“I see this paper as a wake-up call,” says James Watson, a professor of environmental management at The University of Queensland in Australia and co-author of the study.
“The take-home message is that we need a clean energy future, and that we need to plan for that future – and the large spatial footprint it will require – without defeating our other societal goals.”
Watson and collaborators used publicly available datasets and expert opinions from key stakeholders on the handling of croplands, Indigenous estate and ecosystem conservation to develop a net-zero emissions modelling process that identifies lands most suitable for renewable energy development and those which should be excluded.
Their “traffic light” approach maps where energy projects could be easiest to site (green), where they could be potentially sited pending further stakeholder engagement (orange), and where development would be off-limits (red).
“This is among the first works to put biodiversity and natural capital into the same picture as energy planning in Australia, which is a much-needed step in the right direction,” says Watson.
The researchers overlayed their proposed system on the renewable energy zones that the Australian Energy Regulator uses for energy planning and found that at least 2 existing renewable energy zones have over 90% overlap with biodiversity exclusion areas.
“There is a difference between modelling a net-zero pathway and planning one,” says first author Dr Andrew Pascale of Princeton University in the US.
“What looks good from the standpoint of resource quality and proximity to existing infrastructure might not hold when you simultaneously consider biodiversity and other national commitments.
“If 90% of the land in a proposed renewable energy zone will trigger a response from conservation groups, then it may be time to rethink.”
The researchers suggested that an immediate planning goal would be to prioritise turning possible development sites (orange) into ones acceptable to diverse stakeholders (green) as quickly as possible.
However, they caution that their modelling “achieves its net-zero goal by allowing renewable electricity and transmission infrastructure collaboration on the more than 57% of Australia that is covered by Indigenous estate and rainfed croplands.”
They say “…the actual availability of the land needed to facilitate Australia’s transition will be subject to negotiations and decisions involving developers, regulators, landowners and other stakeholders and is therefore highly uncertain.”
Co-author Dr Chris Greig, also from Princeton, adds that at a broader level, the research highlights the importance of flexible, robust net-zero pathways that account for these land-use uncertainties.
“We’ve identified a need for a government planning and approval process that integrates the diverse interests of energy development, Indigenous land rights, environmental values like biodiversity, and natural resources more broadly,” says Greig.
“Those perspectives are typically siloed, which is a recipe for decisions that make unacceptable trade-offs and compromise biodiversity alongside Indigenous and farmers’ rights.”
The authors of the study, which has been published in the journal Nature Sustainability, warn that “all nations need to decarbonise urgently if they are to tackle the climate crisis that Earth is facing.”
“The longer that Australia (or any country) waits to start its net-zero transition, the larger the scale of the annual build needed to reach a specified renewable target.
“Our approach and methods are relevant globally and highlight the importance of proactively, collaboratively and regularly reconsidering the risks to the natural capital on which we not only plan our net-zero solutions but also rely on for the critical systems that sustain life and lifestyles.”
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