Evrim Yazgin
Cosmos science journalist
Can monkeys randomly hitting keys on a typewriter type out the complete works of Shakespeare?
Alas, it is not to be.
This is according to a statistical study published in the journal Franklin Open by 2 researchers from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS).
The Infinite Monkey Theorem is a thought experiment used to explain some basic principles of probability and randomness. It posits that a monkey – or an infinite number of monkeys – given typewriters and an infinite amount of time would eventually type out the complete works of William Shakespeare.
UTS mathematicians Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta have taken on the thought experiment in a light-hearted research project. In an epic “well, actually” moment, they have crushed the dreams of monkeys everywhere.
“The Infinite Monkey Theorem only considers the infinite limit, with either an infinite number of monkeys or an infinite time period of monkey labour,” Woodcock says.
This is clearly outlandish. It is much more feasible to consider a finite number of monkeys. Duh.
“We decided to look at the probability of a given string of letters being typed by a finite number of monkeys within a finite time period consistent with estimates for the lifespan of our universe,” he explains.
The point is that monkeys wouldn’t have an infinite amount of time to type out Shakespeare’s complete works. That’s because the universe is predicted to end in about 10100 years – that’s a 1 with 100 zeroes after it.
Woodcock and Falletta crunched some numbers using computers.
They assumed an average keyboard with 30 keys. They ran the simulation for a single monkey as well as for the current global population of about 200,000 chimpanzees. Yes, chimps aren’t strictly monkeys, but honestly given the nature of this research I think we can let that slide.
How did the simulated monkeys and apes do?
It’s possible, they found, for a single monkey to type the word “bananas” in its own lifetime. A useful skill, to be sure.
But the Bard’s entire works (884,647 words, give or take) will almost never be typed by monkeys randomly mashing keys before the universe ends.
“It is not plausible that, even with improved typing speeds or an increase in chimpanzee populations, monkey labour will ever be a viable tool for developing non-trivial written works,” the authors write.
It seems like much ado about nothing, but the research does highlight the importance of being earnest and remembering the finiteness of things when discussing probability.
Woodcock says this places the Infinite Monkey Theorem in a group of probability puzzles and paradoxes “where using the idea of infinite resources gives results that don’t match up with what we get when we consider the constraints of our universe”.
But what have the monkeys to say about this?
Well, in 2002 researchers at the University of Plymouth in the UK actually tested the Infinite Monkey Theorem with real monkeys.
They left a computer in the enclosure of 6 Celebes crested macaques. Over nearly 2 months, the monkeys produced a total of 5 pages consisting largely of the letter “S”. The lead male also hit the machine with a stone before the rest of the troop urinated and defecated on the machine.
Poetic in its own way, but not really Romeo and Juliet. The rest is silence.
