Imma Perfetto
Cosmos science journalist
As the UN General Assembly prepares to hold its second high-level meeting on antimicrobial resistance this month, a new study highlights the urgent need for decisive, global action to combat the growing threat.
A new report has revealed more than 39 million deaths are estimated to directly result from antibiotic-resistant (AMR) infections between now and 2050, with AMR bacteria to be indirectly implicated in a further 169 million deaths.
This sobering prediction comes from the first in-depth analysis of the global health impacts AMR over time, carried out by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project.
The study, published in The Lancet, provides insights into AMR trends from 1990 to 2021, and estimates potential impacts to 2050 for 204 countries and territories.
It predicts South Asian countries, such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, will be hit hardest by AMR.
“Antimicrobial resistance occurs when microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond effectively to medicines, making infections harder to treat and increasing the risk of disease spread, severe illness and death,” says Professor Rajaraman Eri, an immunology and gut health expert from Australia’s RMIT University, who was not involved in the research.
“The rise of antimicrobial research poses a profound challenge to modern medicine, potentially reversing decades of medical progress.”
Estimates of historic AMR burden were produced for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes among people of all ages, based on 520 million individual records from a range of sources, including hospital data, death records, and antibiotic use data.
Based on current trends, the researchers predict that annual deaths due directly to AMR will increase to 1.91 million by 2050, and deaths in which AMR plays a role will rise to 8.22 million. These are increases of 67.5% and 74.5%, respectively, compared to 2021.
The data also revealed a major age-related shift in global trends in AMR-related deaths over the past 3 decades. AMR deaths among children under 5 years decreased by more than 50%, while those among adults 70 years or older increased by more than 80%.
Study co-author Dr Kevin Ikuta of the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), says the fall in deaths from sepsis and AMR among young children is an incredible achievement.
“However, these findings show that while infections have become less common in young children, they have become harder to treat when they occur. Further, the threat to older people from AMR will only increase as populations age. Now is the time to act to protect people around the world from the threat posed by AMR.”
The researchers acknowledge some limitations to their study, such as a lack of data for some lower middle income countries.
Nevertheless, its findings will be vital inform decision-making at the upcoming high-level UN General Assembly, where global leaders will address the looming threat AMR poses to global health and food security.
“While political will and measurable targets – which will be the focus of the meeting – are important, there are some critical actions needed to effectively address the challenges of antimicrobial resistance,” adds Eri.
Also needed, according to Eri, are:
- robust surveillance systems that track resistance patterns across human, animal and environmental sectors
- global data sharing government action to urgently reduce antibiotics use in agriculture, switching to alternatives such as vaccines and probiotics
- funding for laboratory diagnostics, infection prevention and control measures in low- and middle-income countries, to reduce antibiotic reliance
- new antibiotics (which are not currently lucrative for pharmaceutical companies to design and manufacture), alternative therapies and rapid diagnostics
- importantly, new treatments affordable and accessible for all.
“Antimicrobial resistance is often called the ‘silent epidemic’, but it could be silenced with global cooperation,” says Eri.
