Imma Perfetto
Cosmos science journalist
New research has revealed the impact of climate change on a region of East Africa, with average monthly minimum temperatures increasing by more than 5°C, frequent droughts, and erratic wet conditions.
The changing climate will impact on tourism, biodiversity and human habitability.
Interactions between climate change and oceanic and atmospheric oscillations have impacted weather patterns in the Greater Mara-Serengeti Ecosystem of Kenya and Tanzania in East Africa.
“The Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, like many African savannas, has seen a 5.3°C rise in minimum temperatures since 1960,’ say the authors of a new study published in PLOS Climate who add: “… concurrent with the warming Indian Ocean [this has led] to habitat desiccation [drying] and severe threats to wildlife populations.”
“Frequent severe to extreme droughts and rare instances of very wet to extremely wet years in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem also significantly threaten wildlife populations.”
The researchers used several models to investigate the long-term trends, cycles and seasonality in historic rainfall, temperature and vegetation, as well as the potential impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean and the regional Indian Ocean Dipole.
These phenomena influence rainfall and temperature, making their patterns and interactions crucial to understanding the regional impacts of climate change.
They found that, while yearly average rainfall otherwise remained relatively stable in the regular wet and dry seasons, there was above average rainfall from 2010–2020 influenced by global warming and the IOD.
From 1960 to 2024, the average monthly maximum temperature also increased by 1.4°C.
“Understanding regional climate and vegetation trends and variation and how these are influenced by large-scale oceanic and atmospheric oscillations is crucial for predicting future climatic behaviours, environmental planning and conservation efforts,” the authors write in the study.
“The results highlight the complexity of the regional climatic and environmental dynamics, emphasizing the impact of hemispheric and regional climate phenomena like the IOD and [ENSO] on local weather patterns. This impact is evident in rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
“The consequences of climate change and variability for wildlife conservation are complex and severe … Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive and adaptive conservation strategies that enhance resilience by considering the … interplay between climate change, variability, wildlife behaviour, and human activities.”
