China says the world is likely in the midst of record annual temperatures.
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences published its data in the journal Scientific Reports, saying it expects regions near the equator to experience unprecedented temperatures up to June as El Niño progresses.
It follows recent reports from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirming several heat records at the beginning of the year, as well as across the past 12 months.
CAMS data reports a 90% likelihood that global surface air temperatures calculated between July 2023 and June 2024 will exceed historic records.
It highlights the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, Alaska, the Caribbean Sea and the Amazon as particularly at risk of seeing records tumble. It also warns of ‘knock-on’ effects in other parts of the Earth systems.
“The possibility of record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Caribbean Sea would potentially lead to year-round marine heatwaves, resulting in a series of negative responses or feedbacks, including glacier and permafrost melting, coastal erosion and other negative climate impacts,” the Academy notes.
Is the heat off down under?
The Australian climate is causing headaches for forecasters and the public alike.
Australia has experienced a relatively mild El Niño, though particularly hot and dry days have been experienced across the country, with floods, low rain levels and bushfires. But there has been a noted weakening of the phenomenon and even suggestions that climate patterns could swing back to a La Niña event, which typically brings cooler and wetter conditions.
While some criticism has been levelled at the nation’s weather bureau, climate researchers are quick to point out that weather systems affecting Australia are more complex than ‘drawing an equal sign’.
Increased prevalence of climate events, they say, is actually a question of probability.
“We are seeing more extreme events, frequency of more extreme rainfall events, rainfall events,” says Janette Lindesay, a climate variability specialist at the Australian National University. “That is associated with us living in a warmer world.
“I think that has really drawn people’s attention, perhaps more people’s attention, to what is going on with the weather and, by extension, with our climate and seasonal predictions.
“I think what’s important is communicating the understanding that while we might know these events are the case, that extreme events are increasing… it’s more likely now than it would have been 10 years ago.
“Despite us knowing that, we can’t exactly say where [that] heavy rain is actually going to fall – is it going to be right in the middle of a catchment, or is it going to be just outside? “That sort of precision is not possible.”