Latest report: fossil fuel CO2 emissions reach record high again in 2024

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a new record of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide this year – a growth of 0.8% relative to 2023 – according to the latest report by the Global Carbon Project.

“It is a smaller growth than we had seen [in the] previous year of 1.4% … and also smaller than the very strong growth rates that we saw during the 2000s of around 2.5%,” says CSIRO’s Dr Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project (GCP).

“Nevertheless, it is a growth at a time where global CO₂ emissions should be peaking and declining very quickly.”

The Global Carbon Project is an independent scientific consortium of more than 120 scientists, which produces the annual Global Carbon Budget report – a planetary accounting of all human and natural sources and sinks of CO₂.

The most recent report found that land-use change released 4.2Gt of CO₂, increasing from 2023 due to deforestation and forest degradation from wildfires exacerbated by the hot and dry conditions of the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.

In total, it is projected that 41.6Gt of CO₂ will be released this year, an increase from 40.6Gt in 2023. Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are also set to reach 422.5 parts per million (ppm), 52% above pre-industrial levels.

“Whether it’s 40 billion or it’s 20 billion [tonnes per year], CO₂ concentrations will continue to increase, and warming will continue to increase, until we reach net zero CO₂ emissions,” says Canadell.

Each year, the GCP considers all global sources and sinks of CO₂ and calculates the remaining “carbon budget” – the amount of CO₂ that can be emitted through human activity to stabilise the increase in average global temperatures below specific goals.

The report found that if the world continues to emit CO₂ at 2024 levels, there is a 50% chance global warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently in about six years. We’ll reach 1.7°C in 14 years and 2°C in just 27 years.

The time left to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate change is running out, fast.

“If we were to reduce emissions very quickly, those time frames will be able to be extended longer,” says Canadell.

Instead, global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase in 2024: coal by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%, contributing 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO₂ emissions, respectively.

“For oil, we’ve seen a growth of point 0.9% mostly due to the continued recovery of international aviation,” says Canadell.

“We just saw a spectacular 13.5% increase of emissions from international aviation and almost a return to the pre COVID levels.”

Breaking down fossil CO₂ emissions between the world’s greatest polluters revealed that:

• China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to increase by 0.2%, although the projected range of values (-1.6% to 2.0%) includes a possible decrease in emissions.
• US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.
• India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.
• European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.
• And emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.

Although 22 countries have reduced their fossil CO₂ emissions in the past decade while their economies grew, and others are slowing their growth with continued decarbonisation of the energy sector, these efforts have not been sufficient.

Dr Glen Peters, of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway, says: “There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO₂ emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive.

“Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others.

“Progress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.”

The 19^th annual Global Carbon Report is published in the journal Earth System Science Data Discussions.