State of the climate: crisis reminder after year of disasters

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change operates on cycles that take most of a decade to ensure scientific rigour, the rest of the world needs to move faster.

In fact, according to the 2024 State of the Climate report, an annual missive published in BioScience, multiple climate-related disasters are occurring each month.

“We feel that as scientists we have a duty to keep informing the public about the urgency to act on climate change and to also actively promote possible solutions,” report co-author Dr Thomas Newsome, an ecologist at the University of Sydney, tells Cosmos.

The researchers discuss solutions at the end of their report. First and foremost is a drastic reduction in the use of fossil fuels, which the team believes could be helped along by the introduction of a strong global carbon price.

“In comparison to our last report, we are alarmed by the most recent data showing that global coal and oil consumption have increased to record levels,” lead author Professor William Ripple, an ecologist at Oregon State University, USA, tells Cosmos.

“The failure of many world leaders to support a rapid phase down in fossil fuel use will almost certainly result in additional massive human suffering.”

As well as relentless temperature records, diminishing sea ice, and increases in total greenhouse gas emissions, the report includes a list of disasters that may be “at least partly” related to climate change, occurring between November 2023 and August 2024.

These include heatwaves, floods, fires, and storms.

For instance, temperatures exceeded 50°C in India in April-May this year, resulting in dozens of heat-related deaths.

In February, Chilean wildfires killed 131 people and destroyed more than 14,000 homes.

In June, rainfall in Bangladesh led to landslides that stranded 2 million people.

The researchers also point out a rising frequency of billion-dollar climate-related disasters, costing additional money as well as human lives.

“Increasing use of fossil fuels globally will continue to escalate the impacts of climate change, including in Australia where extreme weather events are already more severe, so there is an urgent need for all countries to aid the shift to renewable energy sources,” says Newsome.

The researchers specify that their list of disasters isn’t exhaustive, and the list does not include Australian bushfires. But the researchers are particularly concerned about the effects of future fires on the climate.

“The latest global data indicate record-breaking fire-related tree cover loss,” says Ripple.

“We are concerned about a dangerous feedback loop wherein CO₂ emissions from these widespread fires cause additional warming, leading to more fires and forest dieback, and so on.”

Dr Pep Canadell, a chief research scientist at CSIRO Environment and executive director of the Global Carbon Project, who wasn’t involved with the research, calls the report “humbling”.

“These increasing trends are here to stay for the next few decades even if we take the most aggressive mitigation paths, which doesn’t seem to be the path taken,” says Canadell.

“Many changes showed a major uptick in the past 12 months in part due to El Niño conditions, but every new peak is much higher than any of the previous ones as they ride over the rapid ever-growing increase in greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.”

The researchers have a range of suggestions for curbing this increase in greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon pricing and an urgent focus on methane emissions.

“The message is clear that nations must strengthen their climate pledges, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and accelerate the transition to renewable energy,” says Newsome.