Farmers urged to become involved in “urgent“ discussions about the future

Farmers have been urged to get involved in discussions about their industry to “safeguard their futures.”

The CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has published the Ag2050 Scenarios Report, to try to identify what Australian farming will look like in 2050, with perhaps the most interesting development being the consolidation of what it describes as “…regional agricultural capitals.”

Dr Katherine Wynn, CSIRO Futures’ Agriculture and Food Lead, says the report “should serve as a call to action for the agricultural sector.”

“The decline in farm profitability over the last two decades is a stark warning, with projections indicating decline by up to 50 per cent in some areas by 2050,” Wynn says.

A recent ABARES Report estimates that changes in seasonal conditions over the period 2001 to 2020 (relative to 1950 to 2000) reduced annual average farm profits by 23%, or around $29,200 per farm.

But Wynn says the CSIRO research offers an optimistic outlook, and indicates “Australia can achieve productive, sustainable and resilient farming systems if we act now to facilitate long-term transformative change in agricultural innovation.”

To do this CSIRO is trying to encourage: ”more urgent conversations across the agricultural sector, including farmers, grower groups, industry groups, government and R&D organisations.”

Dr Rose Roche, CSIRO’s Ag2050 Lead told Cosmos that rather than prescribing specific actions for farmers: “…our aim is to motivate collaborative efforts and strategic planning among the farmers, industry groups, policymakers and researchers who are involved in agriculture innovation.

“The report underscores the critical need for Australian farming systems to accelerate innovation and embrace transformative change to ensure long-term productivity, resilience, and sustainability.”

Among challenges impacting farming systems are climate change, emissions reductions, supply chain disruptions, workforce access, changing consumer preferences, maintaining market access, and long innovation timelines.

How farmers are responding to climate change

Roche says currently as a whole Australian agriculture is managing to keep ahead of climate change.

“But projections show that if we are farming the same as we are today then it is likely that in some regions and industries that won’t be enough to maintain profitable farm businesses.

“It is clear that while some regions in Australia may face difficulties in keeping pace with rapid changes, proactive measures, collaborative efforts, and innovative solutions can help mitigate risks and enhance resilience across the sector.”

The report explores what it calls “four evidence-based future scenarios” to motivate discussions amongst industry stakeholders “that will enable us to achieve productive, resilient, and sustainable farming systems by 2050.”

Above: Charles Sturt University explains the “global digital farm” and how it works with the Food Agility CRC.

The picture of what Australian agriculture will look like in 2050 which emerged from the research consultations are:

• Regional Ag capitals – a consolidated and technologically advanced sector, thriving and prioritising food and fibre security.  
• Landscape stewardship – a forward-thinking sector embracing new opportunities and novel technologies, allowing the environment to flourish.  
• Climate survival – a sector focused on climate adaptation and incremental changes allowing it to survive.  
• System decline – a sector failing to address growing challenges and at a tipping point.  

Roche says: “Our goal is to make cutting-edge scientific solutions accessible and actionable for stakeholders, empowering them to shape a prosperous and sustainable future for Australian agriculture.”

She describes the landscape of on-farm innovation as “diverse.”

“More than $2.3bn is invested in agricultural R&D with about half of that being public investment and half private.

“While organisations like CSIRO and universities contribute valuable research and expertise, private agribusiness also plays a significant part in driving innovation through technology development. Additionally, farmers themselves are key drivers, often implementing and adapting innovations to suit their specific needs and conditions.

“If we work together to plan how we best invest or grow our research and innovation we are confident that the Australian ag industry can overcome current and future challenges.”